I've seen several articles trying to call Donaghy a lair. The way they go about it is to say take an item like Donaghy saying that Steve Javie hates Allen Iverson. Then they go on to do a betting analysis to show that AI got the same treatment in Javie ref'd games versus other refs.
You know what - they may be right. You know what elsewhere - you can't use that to invalidate all of what Donaghy is saying.
Yes, it may debunk one particular betting strategy he had. It still may be true that Javie hates AI and that Donaghy believed it affected the score in those games. However, he could just be wrong about that without undermining his truthfulness.
It's entirely different than the direct claims he made like Bavetta saying that he fixed the 1993 Cavs-Nets playoffs (see below).
That's why I'm analyzing each claim by claim.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Claim #3: Nets-Cavs May 9, 1993
Claim: Dick Bavetta made sure that the Nets would win by giving fouls to Drazen Petrovic. (Personal Foul, p 101)
For: Petrovic did get 3 quick fouls and sat most of the first half (http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/10/sports/pro-basketball-the-nets-never-say-die-but-they-re-done.html).
Against: According to the box score, the fouls were not lopsided in this game.
Impact: Cleveland would have advanced in the playoffs. The Bulls almost for sure would have steamrolled them the next round. Petrovic died less than a month later and given that he almost for sure wouldn't have been on the same road at the same instant, he might still be alive.
Accuracy: Maybe - given how long ago it was, it was hard to uncover facts. I'd love to see video of the first half.
Funny: That NY Times article says "In the end, this series will be remembered as (Derrick) Coleman's coming-out party, when he elevated himself before a nation from very good to great." Well that didn't exactly pan out.
For: Petrovic did get 3 quick fouls and sat most of the first half (http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/10/sports/pro-basketball-the-nets-never-say-die-but-they-re-done.html).
Against: According to the box score, the fouls were not lopsided in this game.
Impact: Cleveland would have advanced in the playoffs. The Bulls almost for sure would have steamrolled them the next round. Petrovic died less than a month later and given that he almost for sure wouldn't have been on the same road at the same instant, he might still be alive.
Accuracy: Maybe - given how long ago it was, it was hard to uncover facts. I'd love to see video of the first half.
Funny: That NY Times article says "In the end, this series will be remembered as (Derrick) Coleman's coming-out party, when he elevated himself before a nation from very good to great." Well that didn't exactly pan out.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Claim #2: Prior to Nugget-Spurs
Claim: Two weeks prior to the game in #1, Donaghy claims "Denver had lost a game a few weeks prior because of a mistake made by the referees, a loss that could be the difference between them making or missing the playoffs. Bavetta told me Denver needed the win and that it would look bad for the staff and the league if the Nuggets missed the playoffs by one game. ... Bavetta looked at me and casually stated, 'Denver will win if they need the game. That’s why I’m on it.'" (Personal Foul p100, also here)
Background: The referee error mentioned was at the end of a February 25th Lakers-Nuggets game (http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-113744118.html).
For/Against: We don't have much to go on. The surface facts checked out but short of another league official speaking up, we'll never know.
Accuracy: Maybe
Background: The referee error mentioned was at the end of a February 25th Lakers-Nuggets game (http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-113744118.html).
For/Against: We don't have much to go on. The surface facts checked out but short of another league official speaking up, we'll never know.
Accuracy: Maybe
Claim #1: Spurs-Nuggets April 14, 2009
Claim: Dick Bavetta told the ref crew to favor the Spurs because they needed the win to win the division ('Personal Foul', page 101 - also here).
For Claim: According to the box score, the Spurs had a huge FT advantage (53-18) and foul advantage (34-23). The Associated Press account said "The Spurs scored 16 of their 32 first-half points against the Nuggets from the line, keeping them in the game" and "who finished with a season-high 53 free throws".
Against: The Spurs were a far better team. The Denver coach said “They had 53 free-throw attempts and I felt a lot of those were a result of our defensive mistakes.” According to the game thread on Nuggets Talk, Denver had nothing to play for and may not have been that motivated. No comments on the refs in that thread but then again it was one of those games that the fans didn't care about.
Effect: In the end nothing. The Spurs still would have had the 3th seed and the Nuggets the 8th.
Accuracy: Maybe. Will reassess if someone can find me video especially of the 1st quarter.
For Claim: According to the box score, the Spurs had a huge FT advantage (53-18) and foul advantage (34-23). The Associated Press account said "The Spurs scored 16 of their 32 first-half points against the Nuggets from the line, keeping them in the game" and "who finished with a season-high 53 free throws".
Against: The Spurs were a far better team. The Denver coach said “They had 53 free-throw attempts and I felt a lot of those were a result of our defensive mistakes.” According to the game thread on Nuggets Talk, Denver had nothing to play for and may not have been that motivated. No comments on the refs in that thread but then again it was one of those games that the fans didn't care about.
Effect: In the end nothing. The Spurs still would have had the 3th seed and the Nuggets the 8th.
Accuracy: Maybe. Will reassess if someone can find me video especially of the 1st quarter.
Analysis of Donaghy's Claims
I will state what the claim is. Look at evidence for and against the claim. State the impact of the claim if it was true. Finally, give it an assessment rating on potential accuracy.
Barron's Hypothesis
"The amount of NBA Referee error is greater than the scoring difference of two elite NBA teams."
This is something I came up with many years ago. I believe it is true. It does not require any belief in conspiracy and even individual rogue refs. This realization ruined the NBA playoffs for me. I wanted to post it up front in case I need to reference it later.
Enough of my personal stuff: on to Donaghy.
This is something I came up with many years ago. I believe it is true. It does not require any belief in conspiracy and even individual rogue refs. This realization ruined the NBA playoffs for me. I wanted to post it up front in case I need to reference it later.
Enough of my personal stuff: on to Donaghy.
My NBA Background
First, I want to say. I will look at all of Tim Donaghy's claims as unbaised as possible. I want this to be like Snopes.com and at the end will rate the claims as falsehood to truth though I suspect almost all will fall somewhere in between.
I was a Celtics fan for years and remembering watching finals on tape delay. Then when the Dallas Mavericks were formed, they became my primary team.
Over the years, I increasingly convinced the NBA was not fair. There were numerous games by various teams that were making me blame the NBA refs were either corrupt and/or incompetent. You know most of them without me saying them (e.g. Kings/Lakers), but I'll mention a few of the lesser known ones that personally affected me:
2002 Spurs/Mavericks series. Game 1 was called in such a way that it guaranteed a Mavericks victory. Game 2 was the infamous game where Joey Crawford decided to call a bunch of Ts against the Mavericks in the opening minutes destroying the game from the beginning and was supposedly later was called on the carpet.
2005 Rockets/Mavericks series. This one is covered by Donaghy and I will get into it further. Yao was a moving screen machine during the early parts of the series and helped their 2-0 lead. JVG's reveal about NBA corruption and $100,000 fine. And yes, Rockets fan, I will say it: Finley was out of bounds - you 100% got screwed on that critical call.
2006 Spurs/Mavericks playoffs series. This was the straw that broke the camel's back. It was one of the worst ref'd series in NBA history though nobody talks about it. The refs attempted to control the winner of 6 of the 7 games. They were successful 5 times - only game 7 did they fail in their attempt. It was at this point that I started watching the calls instead of the games and was the end of my NBA watching days.
I was a Celtics fan for years and remembering watching finals on tape delay. Then when the Dallas Mavericks were formed, they became my primary team.
Over the years, I increasingly convinced the NBA was not fair. There were numerous games by various teams that were making me blame the NBA refs were either corrupt and/or incompetent. You know most of them without me saying them (e.g. Kings/Lakers), but I'll mention a few of the lesser known ones that personally affected me:
2002 Spurs/Mavericks series. Game 1 was called in such a way that it guaranteed a Mavericks victory. Game 2 was the infamous game where Joey Crawford decided to call a bunch of Ts against the Mavericks in the opening minutes destroying the game from the beginning and was supposedly later was called on the carpet.
2005 Rockets/Mavericks series. This one is covered by Donaghy and I will get into it further. Yao was a moving screen machine during the early parts of the series and helped their 2-0 lead. JVG's reveal about NBA corruption and $100,000 fine. And yes, Rockets fan, I will say it: Finley was out of bounds - you 100% got screwed on that critical call.
2006 Spurs/Mavericks playoffs series. This was the straw that broke the camel's back. It was one of the worst ref'd series in NBA history though nobody talks about it. The refs attempted to control the winner of 6 of the 7 games. They were successful 5 times - only game 7 did they fail in their attempt. It was at this point that I started watching the calls instead of the games and was the end of my NBA watching days.
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